Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Early 2012 Hopes

As early as August of this year I said we had a chance for as many as 75 house seats and 12 senate seats. Even though the 12 senate seat prediction was really pushing things, I thought that if we had the perfect political storm we could pull it off. But, as was predicted by some skeptics who felt that the GOP establishment would not take the influx of tea party candidates very well, the GOP found itself shooting itself in the foot in places like Colorado, Nevada, Delaware, West Virginia, California and Washington. With such a strong organizational structure from the unions and ACORN-clones in such states as California, Nevada, Colorado and Washington, it didn't take much foot-shooting from the GOP for the Dems to salvage seats in those states.

With that memory still clear in my mind, the Refounders group on Facebook asked today whether we conservatives could bring ourselves to support whatever candidate came out in opposition to Obama in 2012. That led me to respond that we need to be very wise from the early stages of the primary process, beginning in 2011 and culminating in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina in early 2012. We need to find the candidates who:

1) best articulate the platform of fiscal conservatism and limited government, along with restoration of US strength in foreign affairs.
2) we believe can best defeat Obama. This may not be the candidate of choice, but nonetheless, we cannot afford another four years of Obama. We must find a candidate who CAN beat him.
3) surrounds themselves with the best advisers and leadership
4) is soundly organized to not only get out the vote, but to pull the GOP and Independents together for a common purpose.
5) who has a sound game plan for winning 270+ electoral votes.

At this point there are four major GOP hopefuls: Palin, Gingrich, Romney and Huckabee. All of them are capable of putting together a campaign to win the nomination. And all four are capable of dealing with the national scene. NONE of them are favored above the other.

That being said, I'd like to now give my opinion of a Dream Ticket. Suffice it to say that both of these people must make strides in putting together fund raising and get-out-the-vote structures, and must make giant strides in developing their message for the national scene. But, assuming they do, I believe this ticket would be a winning one.

Marco Rubio / Paul Ryan

Now, let me next say that this is not the only ticket that I believe can beat Obama in 2012. But I believe this ticket, if they achieve the above stated prerequisites, would be a lock to win and could lead to 16 straight years of a conservative GOP White House.

Here's how they win.

1) It would be assumed they can win the states that McCain won in 2008 (Alaska, Arizona, Utah, Idaho, Montana, North and South Dakota, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texax, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee for a total of 173 electoral votes. This leaves us 97 electoral votes short.

2) Rubio, bringing in the Latino vote just enough to turn Florida, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado Red. Those four states are 46 electoral votes, leaving us 51 short.

3) Ryan helps to bring back Iowa, Indiana and Wisconsin. That's 28 additional electoral votes, leaving us 23 votes shy.

4) With the sweep of governor's mansions and state legislatures in 2010, the GOP is poised to battle in the following states: Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia, Michigan, North Carolina, New Hampshire, and Connecticut. These states represent 112 electoral votes. That's not asking a lot.

5) Even Minnesota, a neighbor to Ryan, and Illinois, normally very liberal states, could be in play, though if we are fighting for these states, then we're looking at a landslide.

This, again, is not to say that no other ticket could be Obama. Gingrich could almost certainly mop the floor with Obama in a debate, but is he conservative enough. Palin can carry the common vote and most assuredly scares the Libs on some front. But can she win? Yes, but it's not sure thing. In my mind, Rubio/Ryan is the most conservative ticket and have, in my opinion, the strongest chance of winning. What do you all think?

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