Friday, August 6, 2010

Taking Back The Senate 2010

Taking Back The Senate
Like our efforts to “take back the House”, this is only secondarily about making the Republicans the majority party in the Senate. There are only two choices as to whom would be the majority party. Republicans are more suited to conservatives…though not so much so that we much not be careful (see Castle vs. McConnell in Delaware).
I am going to take a look at all 37 Senate seats being contested this November. Some are shoe-ins for the incumbent. But others offer a good chance to make some changes.

Seats Projected to Solidly Remain Republican:
Alabama – Richard Shelby
Alaska – Lisa Murkowski
Arizona - John McCain
Georgia – John Isakson
Idaho – Mike Crapo
Iowa – Chuck Grassley
Kansas – Jeff Moran
Kentucky – Rand Paul
Louisiana – David Vitters
Missouri – Roy Blunt
North Carolina – Richard Burr
Oklahoma – Tom Coburn
South Carolina – Jim DeMint
South Dakota – John Thune
Utah – Mike Lee

Seats Projected to Solidly Remain Democrat:
Connecticut – Richard Blumenthal
Hawaii – Daniel Inouye
Maryland – Barbara Mikulski
New York (Senior Seat) – Charles Schumer
Oregon – James Huffman
Vermont – Pat Leahy

That leaves 17 seats that are in play. Some of these 17 seats are currently very strongly leaning towards one party or another. But they are still in play for various reasons.

AR – Republican John Boozmanis WAY out in front of Blanche Lincoln, the Democratic incumbent. This seat is going to switch parties. GOP GAIN

CA – Barbara Boxer is the three term incumbent in the bluest of blue states. In Mass. it took Kennedy’s death for that seat to go Republican. But here, no death is necessary. This seat is in play with the latest polls showing a statistical tie (46 to 44 in Boxer’s favor). But, as Karl Rove reported, the reported, Boxer has never had 50% in this race. And the undecided votes typically go against the incumbent, unless there is an October Surprise of some kind. Living in California, myself, I will definitely be trying to help her win. Would I have liked to have seen Chuck DeVore instead of Carly? Yes, of course…but that’s over and we need Boxer out. So, Carly gets my help. GOP GAIN (WISHFUL THINKING? PERHAPS)

CO – Mike Bennett, the Democratic incumbent is in deep trouble here. In fact, the Democratic Party, with the Romanoff scandal on their heels, is in deep trouble. The primaries are still to come. So his Republican opponent is not yet determined. But he loses, in the polls, to either Republican candidate. Now, who do we support in the Primaries, Ken Buck or Jane Norton. Their campaign is getting nasty and this may turn off voters. But thank goodness, the primary is next week and that leaves plenty of time for the winner to campaign against Bennett instead of against the other Republican. I don’t honestly care which one wins…mostly because they both have the right views on the important issues and either one is FAR better than Bennett. GOP GAIN (I HOPE)

DE – This is Joe Biden’s old seat. Here we have some shady business going on. Rumors are abounding that Mike Castle, the leading Republican candidate, is in bed with the Biden, specifically Beau Biden, Joe’s son (not literally in bed). Biden knew from the polling that he had no chance of winning this seat. Castle has supposedly cut a deal to win the GOP nomination, get elected and pull an Arlen Specter on the Republicans, then resign and have Beau be appointed to the seat. I know, I know…and they call birthers crazy. I truly doubt that would happen, especially now that it’s been exposed. But nonetheless, the Republicans are projected to win this seat no matter whether Mike Castle or Christine O’Donnell win the nomination. In that regards, O’Donnell is far and away the better conservative here. She is not trailing Castle by much and so I fully endorse O’Donnell and hope our Delaware patriots can help her win. GOP GAIN (MOST LIKELY)

FL – Goodness, we all know what’s going on here. RINO, Charlie Crist was upset that he didn’t get the Republican nomination so he went rogue (independent). He is threatening to turn this state upside down. His election would amount to electing another RINO, at best, or another Democrat. We’ve seen what RINOs do in the Senate (see Elena Kagen as just the latest example). Please, Florida, get Marco Rubio elected to the Senate. GOP GAIN (SIGH…DOESN’T LOOK PROMISING)

IL – Mark Kirk (R) and Alexi Giannoulias (D) are running neck and neck here. This would be such a slap in the face of Obama if Kirk wins this seat. Obama even went there during his birthday weekend to help raise a million dollars for Giannoulias. Despite that, the two candidates are in a statistical tie (Kirk trails 43 to 41). This is actually key seat that I think we should attack and try to win. GOP GAIN (I HOPE SO)

IN – Dan Coats (R) is far ahead of Brad Ellsworth (D) is taking this seat from the Dems as Evan Bayh retires from the Senate. GOP GAIN

– We all know what’s at stake here. If Reid doesn’t get ousted, what power can we possibly have as Conservatives? Reid was down by 15 points before Angle won the nomination. But he came out with guns ablazing and quickly eliminated Angle’s lead and took a 7 point advantage. However, NEVER, has Reid’s numbers topped 50%. He is deeply vulnerable still. And, in fact, with recent support for Angle increasing and money flowing in, projections are that Reid’s lies and smear tactics are growing weak. Recent polls showed this now a dead heat again. It is time to fight, Patriots. THIS is our Revolutionary War. No guns, just ballots. We HAVE to win…or we lose our country. GOP GAIN (A MUST)

NH – I guess retiring Senator Judd Gregg just wasn’t satisfied with retiring. He had to go out with one last stab in the back of our Constitution. Voting for Elena Kagen was a low blow by this moron. Now it’s time to replace him with someone with some understanding of the Constitution. Congressman Paul Hodes (D) is the Dems’ nominee here. His record indicates just how much worse it would be to elect him than it would be to even retain Judd Gregg. The September 14th primaries will determine his opponent on the GOP ballot. Republican Kelly Ayotte has shown to be the front runner for the GOP nomination and polls ahead of Hodes for the seat. GOP HOLD (YES…AND MORE CONSERVATIVE TOO)

NY (Junior Seat) – This is the seat Hillary once held and is now belonging to Kirsten Gillebrand. She is polling strong in retaining this seat. It is unlikely we’ll take it from her. Though people like Dick Morris still think the dust has not settled yet and she is vulnerable due to some serious ethics violations on her part that have yet to come out, except in Morris’ book. I wish he were right, but there doesn’t seem to be a strong candidate to run against her. Still, with Gillebrand not polling over 49% in the polls, she is still vulnerable. It is going to wind up coming down to who the GOP nominee is here. The Primary is September 14th. GOP GAIN? (NOT LIKELY)
ND – This is a strong opportunity for the GOP to gain a seat as John Hoeven is far ahead of Dem. Tracy Potter. GOP GAIN

OH – This is a seat we have to keep. Rob Portman (R) is leading Lee Fisher (D) in the polls, but only barely. If we are to regain the Senate, we cannot be losing seats like this one. Please lend your support to the Portman campaign.

PA – Here’s another potential pick up for the GOP. Pat Toomey is leading Joe Sestak in the fight to take this seat which was held by the turncoat, Arlen Specter. Again, lend your hand here…take this seat and we have a good chance of taking back the Senate. GOP GAIN

WA – Dino Rossi is strongly challenging incumbent Democrat Patty Murray. They are in a statistical tie, with Murray only slightly leading in the Polls. With Murray never coming close to 50% in the polls, this seat is extremely vulnerable to the GOP. GOP GAIN (VERY POSSIBLE)

WV –With the death of Robert Byrd, the Dems are forced to try to hold yet another seat. This is strongly leaning towards Governor Joe Manchin winning the Dem. nomination and winning the seat…you just never know what’s going to happen between now and November 2nd. The vulnerability here is that this is a state rich in mining, coal mining. And the people here are not all that happy with the idea of Cap and Trade, nor with Obama’s attitude towards coal mining. That being said, let’s wait to see how the Primary lays out and then see if this seat remains strongly Dem. GOP GAIN? (NOT LIKELY)

WI – Russ Feingold is in big trouble here. The primaries still haven’t been run and he’s trailing Republican Ron Johnson in numerous polls. This seat is a strong possible GOP gain. It will take lots of work, as Feingold will, undoubtedly, come out swinging when the GOP primary is over, just like Reid did. But if Johnson’s camp can prepare for that they can fend him off and really challenge this seat. GOP GAIN? (HOPEFUL).

As you can see, with Arkansas, Colorado, Indiana, North Dakota and Pennsylvania strongly leaning towards a Republican gain, that puts the GOP at 46 seats and the Dems at 52 with two independents. We would technically need to gain five more seats AND hold onto Florida and Ohio. Florida and Ohio are winnable. The five Dem seats we need to target are: Nevada, Illinois, Wisconsin, Washington, and Colorado. That also leaves California and Delaware. Delaware, as I told you, will most likely go Republican. I would not consider it a real victory, though, if Castle wins. If he wins, at best he remains GOP (allowing GOP to be the majority party in the Senate), but joins the ranks of John McCain, Lindsay Graham, Olympia Snowe and that other Senator from Maine as the RINOs of the Senate. I’d rather not have that, especially when we have Christine O’Donnell who could win that seat too and she is much more conservative. In California, Fiorina is not much better than a RINO, but I’ll take her over Boxer any day. So frankly, there are a minimum of 12 Dem seats that COULD change hands in a perfect world. But, as one person wrote recently, this November’s elections look to be the “perfect political storm with the Democrats caught in the middle of it”. For the first time, we can do more than merely HOPE that’s true. We are within range of it and we must be diligent to do what we must to win back both the House and the Senate.

1 comment:

Tricia said...

WA state win VERY POSSIBLE by the GOP but not necessarily with Rossi. Clint Didier is gaining momentum and will take us over the top to knock Patty Murray out of her seat!!!!